Articles • June 29, 2023

Where Will You Go If You Sell? Newly Built Homes Might Be the Answer.

by Richard Wamsat

Hispanic carpenter with a circular saw on rafter at a house under construction

Do you want to sell your house, but hesitate because you’re worried you won’t be able to find your next home in today’s market? You’re not alone, but there’s some good news that may ease your worries. New home construction is up and is becoming an increasingly significant part of the housing inventory.

That means when you go to put your house on the market this summer, considering newly built homes is crucial for expanding the options you’ll have for your next move.

Near-Record Percentage of New Home Inventory

Newly built homes today make up a near-record percentage of the total number of homes available for sale (see graph below):

In fact, as the data shows, newly built homes now make up 31% of the total for-sale inventory. Over the past couple of decades, newly built homes made up an average of only around 13% of total housing inventory from 1983 to 2019.

That means the percentage of the total available homes that are newly built is over two times higher than the norm.

Why This Matters to You

Overall, the supply of homes for sale is still low. And when there’s limited supply, it’s crucial to explore all of your available choices. New-home construction has emerged as a game changer with increasing inventory. Not to mention, recent data shows it’s gaining even more momentum as more newly built homes are underway and will be coming to the market in the months ahead.

Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), highlights the importance of newly built homes for those looking to buy in today’s housing market. Dietz states:

“With limited available housing inventory, new construction will continue to be a significant part of prospective buyers’ search in the quarters ahead.”

Don’t overlook this growing market segment and risk missing out on great opportunities to find your ideal home. Since new home construction accounts for roughly 31% of total for sale inventory, you could be cutting nearly one in three options from your search if you don’t consider newly built homes.

If you’re looking to make a move, a local real estate agent can help you sell your current house and explore newly built options in your area. They have the expertise you need to handle both sides of the process so you can move out of your current house and into your brand-new dream home.

Bottom Line

Now’s the time to sell your house and take advantage of the momentum that’s building in new home construction. Let’s connect so you have a guide throughout the selling and buying process. Together, we can make your transition to a newly built home a reality.

Articles • Mortgage • June 28, 2023

Lending Standards Are Not Like They Were Leading Up to the Crash

by Richard Wamsat

Front porch of house with brown rocking chairs and nobody in traditional american house

You might be worried we’re heading for a housing crash, but there are many reasons why this housing market isn’t like the one we saw in 2008. One of which is how lending standards are different today. Here’s a look at the data to help prove it.

Every month, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) releases the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). According to their website:

“The MCAI provides the only standardized quantitative index that is solely focused on mortgage credit. The MCAI is . . . a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.”

Basically, the index determines how easy it is to get a mortgage. Take a look at the graph below of the MCAI since they started keeping track of this data in 2004. It shows how lending standards have changed over time. It works like this:

When lending standards are less strict, it’s easier to get a mortgage, and the index (the green line in the graph) is higher.
When lending standards are stricter, it’s harder to get a mortgage, and the line representing the index is lower.

In 2004, the index was around 400. But, by 2006, it had gone up to over 850. Today, the story is quite different. Since the crash, the index went down because lending standards got tighter, so today it’s harder to get a mortgage.

Loose Lending Standards Contributed to the Housing Bubble

One of the main factors that contributed to the housing bubble was that lending standards were a lot less strict back then. Realtor.com explains it like this:

“In the early 2000s, it wasn’t exactly hard to snag a home mortgage. . . . plenty of mortgages were doled out to people who lied about their incomes and employment, and couldn’t actually afford homeownership.”

The tall peak in the graph above indicates that leading up to the housing crisis, it was much easier to get credit, and the requirements for getting a loan were far from strict. Back then, credit was widely available, and the threshold for qualifying for a loan was low.

Lenders were approving loans without always going through a verification process to confirm if the borrower would likely be able to repay the loan. That means creditors were lending to more borrowers who had a higher risk of defaulting on their loans.

Today’s Loans Are Much Tougher To Get than Before

As mentioned, lending standards have changed a lot since then. Bankrate describes the difference:

“Today, lenders impose tough standards on borrowers – and those who are getting a mortgage overwhelmingly have excellent credit.”

If you look back at the graph, you’ll notice after the peak around the time of the housing crash, the line representing the index went down dramatically and has stayed low since. In fact, the line is far below where standards were even in 2004 – and it’s getting lower. Joel Kan, VP and Deputy Chief Economist at MBA, provides the most recent update from May:

“Mortgage credit availability decreased for the third consecutive month . . . With the decline in availability, the MCAI is now at its lowest level since January 2013.”

The decreasing index suggests standards are getting much tougher – which makes it clear we’re far away from the extreme lending practices that contributed to the crash.

Bottom Line

Leading up to the housing crash, lending standards were much more relaxed with little evaluation done to measure a borrower’s potential to repay their loan. Today, standards are tighter, and the risk is reduced for both lenders and borrowers. This goes to show, these are two very different housing markets, and this market isn’t like the last time.

Articles • June 28, 2023

Lending Standards Are Not Like They Were Leading Up to the Crash

by Richard Wamsat

Every month, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) releases the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). According to their website:

“The MCAI provides the only standardized quantitative index that is solely focused on mortgage credit. The MCAI is . . . a summary measure which indicates the availability of mortgage credit at a point in time.”

When lending standards are less strict, it’s easier to get a mortgage, and the index (the green line in the graph) is higher.
When lending standards are stricter, it’s harder to get a mortgage, and the line representing the index is lower.

Loose Lending Standards Contributed to the Housing Bubble

One of the main factors that contributed to the housing bubble was that lending standards were a lot less strict back then. Realtor.com explains it like this:

“In the early 2000s, it wasn’t exactly hard to snag a home mortgage. . . . plenty of mortgages were doled out to people who lied about their incomes and employment, and couldn’t actually afford homeownership.”

Today’s Loans Are Much Tougher To Get than Before

As mentioned, lending standards have changed a lot since then. Bankrate describes the difference:

“Today, lenders impose tough standards on borrowers – and those who are getting a mortgage overwhelmingly have excellent credit.”

“Mortgage credit availability decreased for the third consecutive month . . . With the decline in availability, the MCAI is now at its lowest level since January 2013.”

The decreasing index suggests standards are getting much tougher – which makes it clear we’re far away from the extreme lending practices that contributed to the crash.

Bottom Line

Articles • Buying • Mortgage • June 27, 2023

Why Homeownership Wins in the Long Run

by Richard Wamsat

Young woman jogging in neighborhood with houses in the background.

Today’s higher mortgage rates, inflationary pressures, and concerns about a potential recession have some people questioning: should I still buy a home this year? While it’s true this year has unique challenges for homebuyers, it’s important to think about the long-term benefits of homeownership when making your decision.

Consider this: if you know people who bought a home 5, 10, or even 30 years ago, you’re probably going to have a hard time finding someone who regrets their decision. Why is that? The reason is tied to how home values grow with time and how, by extension, that grows your own wealth. That may be why, in a recent Fannie Mae survey, 70% of respondents say they believe buying a home is a safe investment.

Here’s a look at how just the home price appreciation piece can really add up over the years.

Home Price Growth over Time

The map below uses data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to show just how noteworthy price gains have been over the last five years. And, since home prices vary by area, the map is broken out regionally to help convey larger market trends.

If you look at the percent change in home prices, you can see home prices grew on average by just over 56% nationwide over a five-year period.

Some regions are slightly above or below that average, but overall, home prices gained solid ground in a short time. And if you expand that time frame even more, the benefit of homeownership and the drastic gains homeowners made over the years become even clearer (see map below):

The second map shows, nationwide, home prices appreciated by an average of over 290% over a roughly 30-year span.

This nationwide average tells you the typical homeowner who bought a house 30 years ago saw their home almost triple in value over that time. That’s a key factor in why so many homeowners who bought their homes years ago are still happy with their decision.

And while you may have heard talk in late 2022 that home prices would crash, it didn’t happen. Even though home prices have moderated from the record peak we saw during the ‘unicorn’ years, prices are already rebounding in many areas today. That means, in most markets, your home should grow in value over the next year.

The alternative to buying a home is renting, and rental prices have been climbing for decades. So why rent and deal with annual lease hikes for no long-term financial benefit? Instead, consider buying a home.

Bottom Line

If you’re questioning if it still makes sense to buy a home today, remember the incredible long-term benefits of homeownership. If you’re ready to start the conversation, let’s connect today.

Articles • Selling • June 21, 2023

Eco-Friendly, Energy-Efficient Homes Attract Buyers

by Richard Wamsat

Man adjusting the temperature on the thermostat of his house

Are you planning to sell your house? If so, you may be surprised to hear just how much buyers value energy efficiency and eco-friendly features today. This is especially true as summer officially kicks off.

In fact, the 2023 Realtors and Sustainability Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 48% of agents or brokers have noticed consumers are interested in sustainability.

So, if you’re considering selling your house, why does this matter to you? It helps you know what you can do to make your house even more appealing to today’s buyers. According to Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at NAR:

“Buyers often seek homes that either lessen their environmental footprint or reduce their monthly energy costs. There is value in promoting green features and energy information to future home buyers.”

Consider Upgrading Your Home To Make It More Appealing

If you want to upgrade your house in a way that maximizes its green appeal, you need to work with a local agent to understand what buyers in your area are looking for. The same NAR report identifies the following green home features as most important to buyers at a national level:

Windows, doors, and siding
Proximity to frequently visited places
A comfortable living space
A home’s utility bills and operating costs

While you can’t change the location of your house, you can take action to make sure it’s as comfortable as possible while also setting up the next owners for lower operating costs. ENERGY STAR shares some suggested upgrades as ones that may be worth considering:

Heating and cooling: Ensure your HVAC system is properly maintained and regularly serviced to maximize its efficiency. Consider upgrading to a high-efficiency model, if needed.
Water heater: Your water heater uses a lot of energy. Upgrading to a heat pump water heater can significantly reduce energy consumption and appeal to environmentally conscious buyers.
Smart thermostat: A big part of your energy bill goes to heating and cooling. Install a programmable thermostat to better regulate temperature settings. This not only enhances comfort but can also lower energy usage.
Attic insulation: Proper sealing and insulation in your attic help prevent air leaks and maintain a comfortable temperature, reducing the strain on heating and cooling systems.
Energy-efficient windows: Replacing old, drafty windows with energy-efficient ones can minimize heat transfer and lower your energy bills.

It’s worth noting that you may be able to take advantage of tax credits and rebates for energy-efficient home installations and upgrades. These incentives could help offset a portion of the costs associated with eco-friendly home improvements.

As you prepare to sell your house, it’s important to recognize that real estate agents are valuable resources. They can help you determine which upgrades would be most appealing for buyers in your area and provide guidance on which green features to highlight in your listing. If you’ve already made these updates recently, tell your agent so they can feature them in your listing.

Bottom Line

Focusing on energy efficiency and eco-friendly features can help make your house more appealing to buyers today. Let’s connect to ensure you’re choosing the right upgrades for our area.

Articles • June 20, 2023

Why the Median Home Price Is Meaningless in Today’s Market

by Richard Wamsat

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release its latest Existing Home Sales (EHS) report later this week. This monthly report provides information on the sales volume and price trend for previously owned homes. In the upcoming release, it’ll likely say home prices are down. This may feel a bit confusing, especially if you’ve been following along and seeing the blogs saying that home prices have bottomed out and turned a corner.

So, why will this likely say home prices are falling when so many other price reports say they’re going back up? It all depends on the methodology of each report. NAR reports on the median sales price, while some other sources use repeat sales prices. Here’s how those approaches differ.

The Center for Real Estate Studies at Wichita State University explains median prices like this:

“The median sale price measures the ‘middle’ price of homes that sold, meaning that half of the homes sold for a higher price and half sold for less . . . For example, if more lower-priced homes have sold recently, the median sale price would decline (because the “middle” home is now a lower-priced home), even if the value of each individual home is rising.”

Investopedia helps define what a repeat sales approach means:

“Repeat-sales methods calculate changes in home prices based on sales of the same property, thereby avoiding the problem of trying to account for price differences in homes with varying characteristics.”

The Challenge with the Median Sales Price Today

As the quotes above say, the approaches can tell different stories. That’s why median price data (like EHS) may say prices are down, even though the vast majority of the repeat sales reports show prices are appreciating again.

Bill McBride, Author of the Calculated Risk blog, sums the difference up like this:

“Median prices are distorted by the mix and repeat sales indexes like Case-Shiller and FHFA are probably better for measuring prices.”

To drive this point home, here’s a simple explanation of median value (see visual below). Let’s say you have three coins in your pocket, and you decide to line them up according to their value from low to high. If you have one nickel and two dimes, the median value (the middle one) is 10 cents. If you have two nickels and one dime, the median value is now five cents.

In both cases, a nickel is still worth five cents and a dime is still worth 10 cents. The value of each coin didn’t change.

That’s why using the median home price as a gauge of what’s happening with home values isn’t worthwhile right now. Most buyers look at home prices as a starting point to determine if they match their budgets. But, most people buy homes based on the monthly mortgage payment they can afford, not just the price of the house. When mortgage rates are higher, you may have to buy a less expensive home to keep your monthly housing expense affordable. A greater number of ‘less-expensive’ houses are selling right now for this exact reason, and that’s causing the median price to decline. But that doesn’t mean any single house lost value.

When you see the stories in the media that prices are falling later this week, remember the coins. Just because the median price changes, it doesn’t mean home prices are falling. What it means is the mix of homes being sold is being impacted by affordability and current mortgage rates.

Bottom Line

For a more in-depth understanding of home price trends and reports, let’s connect.

Articles • June 19, 2023

Saving for a Down Payment? Here’s What You Need To Know.

by Richard Wamsat

Smiling entrepreneur using phone in office meeting

If you’re planning to buy your first home, then you’re probably focused on saving for all the costs involved in such a big purchase. One of the expenses that may be at the top of your mind is your down payment. If you’re intimidated by how much you need to save for that, it may be because you believe you must put 20% down. That doesn’t necessarily have to be the case. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) notes:

“One of the biggest misconceptions among housing consumers is what the typical down payment is and what amount is needed to enter homeownership.”

And a recent Freddie Mac survey finds:

“. . . nearly a third of prospective homebuyers think they need a down payment of 20% or more to buy a home. This myth remains one of the largest perceived barriers to achieving homeownership.”

Here’s the good news. Unless specified by your loan type or lender, it’s typically not required to put 20% down. This means you could be closer to your homebuying dream than you realize.

According to NAR, the median down payment hasn’t been over 20% since 2005. In fact, the median down payment for all homebuyers today is only 14%. And it’s even lower for first-time homebuyers at just 6% (see graph below):

What does this mean for you? It means you may not need to save as much as you originally thought.

Learn About Options That Can Help You Toward Your Goal

And it’s not just how much you need for your down payment that isn’t clear. There are also misconceptions about down payment assistance programs. For starters, many people believe there’s only assistance available for first-time homebuyers. While first-time buyers have many options to explore, repeat buyers have some, too.

According to Down Payment Resource, there are over 2,000 homebuyer assistance programs in the U.S., and the majority are intended to help with down payments. That same resource goes on to say:

“You don’t have to be a first-time buyer. Over 38% of all programs are for repeat homebuyers who have owned a home in the last 3 years.”

Plus, there are even loan types, like FHA loans with down payments as low as 3.5% as well as options like VA loans and USDA loans with no down payment requirements for qualified applicants.

If you’re interested in learning more about down payment assistance programs, information is available through sites like Down Payment Resource. Then, partner with a trusted lender to learn what you qualify for on your homebuying journey.

Bottom Line

Remember, a 20% down payment isn’t always required. If you want to purchase a home this year, let’s connect to start the conversation about your homebuying goals.

Articles • Buying • Selling • June 15, 2023

Why Buying or Selling a Home Helps the Economy and Your Community

by Richard Wamsat

A large gray craftsman new construction house with a landscaped yard and leading pathway sidewalk

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a house, it’s important to know that it doesn’t just affect your life, but also your community.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases a report every year to show how much economic activity is generated by home sales. The chart below illustrates that impact:

As the visual shows, when a house is sold, it can make a big difference in the local economy. The impact comes largely from the workers required to build, update, and buy and sell homes. Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains how the housing industry adds jobs to a community:

“The economic impact means housing is a significant job creator. In fact, for every single-family home built, enough economic activity is generated to sustain three full-time jobs for a year, per NAHB research. . . . And one job for every $100,000 in remodeling spending.”

Housing being a major job creator makes sense when you consider there are many different industries involved in the process. A recent article from Fortune notes housing activity could have a more robust impact than you think due to the many ways it’s tied to the economy:

“Housing has three direct linkages to economic activity (GDP): the construction of new homes, the remodeling of existing homes, and that of housing transactions. . . . consider the activity associated with home sales – think broker fees, lawyers, etc. – which are a sizable contributor to housing’s GDP footprint.”

When you buy or sell a home, you work with a team of professionals, including contractors, specialists, lawyers, and city officials. Each person plays a role in making the transaction happen.

So, when you make a move in the housing market, you’re not just meeting your own needs, you’re also making a positive impact on the community. Knowing this can give you a sense of empowerment as you make your decision this year.

Bottom Line

Each and every home sale is important for the local economy. If you’re ready to move, let’s connect. It won’t just change your life – it’ll also have a strong positive effect on the whole community.

Articles • June 14, 2023

A Drop in Equity Doesn’t Mean Low Equity

by Richard Wamsat

You may see media coverage talking about a drop in homeowner equity. What’s important to understand is that equity is tied closely to home values. So, when home prices appreciate, you can expect equity to grow. And when home prices decline, equity does too. Here’s how this has played out recently.

Home prices rose rapidly during the ‘unicorn’ years. That gave homeowners a considerable equity boost. But those ‘unicorn’ years couldn’t last forever. The market had to moderate at some point, and that’s what we saw last fall and winter.

As home prices dropped slightly in the back half of 2022, equity was impacted. Based on the most recent report from CoreLogic, there was a 0.7% dip in homeowner equity over the last year. However, the headlines reporting on that change aren’t painting the whole picture. The reality is, while home price depreciation during the second half of last year caused equity to drop, the data shows homeowners still have near record amounts of equity.

The graph below helps illustrate this point by looking at the total amount of tappable equity in this country going all the way back to 2005. Tappable equity is the amount of equity available for homeowners to access before hitting a maximum 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV). As the data shows, there was a significant equity boost during the ‘unicorn’ years as home prices rapidly appreciated (see the pink in the graph below).

But here’s what’s key to realize – even though there’s been a small dip, total homeowner equity is still much higher than it was before the ‘unicorn’ years.

And there’s more good news. Recent home price reports show the worst home price declines are behind us, and prices have started to go up again. As Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“Home equity trends closely follow home price changes. As a result, while the average amount of equity declined from a year ago, it increased from the fourth quarter of 2022, as monthly home prices growth accelerated in early 2023.”

The last part of that quote is particularly important and is the piece of the puzzle the news is leaving out. To further emphasize the positive turn we’re already seeing, experts say home prices are forecast to appreciate at a more normal rate over the next year. In the same report, Hepp puts it this way:

“The average U.S. homeowner now has more than $274,000 in equity – up significantly from $182,000 before the pandemic. Also, while homeowners in some areas of the country who bought a property last spring have no equity as a result of price losses, forecasted home price appreciation over the next year should help many borrowers regain some of that lost equity.”

And even though Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, references a slightly different number, Kushi further validates the fact that homeowners have a lot of equity right now:

“Homeowners today have an average of $302,000 in equity in their homes.”

That means if you’ve owned your home for a few years, you likely still have way more equity than you did before the ‘unicorn’ years. And if you’ve owned your home for a year or less, the forecast for more typical price appreciation over the next year should mean your equity is already on the way back up.

Bottom Line

Context is everything when looking at headlines. While homeowner equity dropped some from last year, it’s still near all-time highs. Let’s connect so you can get the answers you deserve from an expert who’s here to help as you plan your move this year.

Articles • Mortgage • June 13, 2023

Your Needs Matter More Than Today’s Mortgage Rates

by Richard Wamsat

Happy family and friends eating at garden lunch party in back yard

If you’re thinking about selling your house right now, chances are it’s because something in your life has changed. And, while things like mortgage rates are a key part of your decision on what you’ll buy next, it’s important to not lose sight of the reason you want to make a change in the first place.

It’s true mortgage rates have climbed from the record lows we saw in recent years, and that has an impact on affordability. With rates where they are right now, some homeowners are deciding they’ll wait to sell because they don’t want to move and have a higher mortgage rate on their next home. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:

“. . . homeowners who locked in a 30-year fixed rate in the 2-3% range don’t necessarily want to give that up in exchange for a rate in the 6-7% range.”

But your lifestyle and your changing needs should matter more. Here are a few of the most common reasons people choose to sell today. Any one of these may be more important than keeping your current mortgage rate.

As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says in a recent tweet:

“First-time and move-up buyers are both active . . . the latter driven by life changes. Divorce, marriage, new higher paid job, and existing home unsuitable all referenced.”

Relocation

Some of the things that can motivate a move to a new area include changing jobs, a desire to be closer to friends and loved ones, wanting to live in a dream location, or just looking for a change in scenery.

For example, if you live in suburbia and just landed your dream job in NYC, you may be thinking about selling your current home and moving to the city for work.

Upgrading

Many homeowners decide to sell to move into a larger home. This is especially common when there’s a need for more room to entertain, a home office or gym, or additional bedrooms to accommodate a growing number of loved ones.

For example, if you’re living in a condo and decide it’s time to seek out a home with more space, or if your household is growing, it may be time to find a home that better fits those needs.

Downsizing

With inflation driving up everyday expenses, homeowners may also decide to sell to reduce maintenance and costs. Or, they may sell because someone’s moved out of the home recently and there’s now more space than needed. It could also be that they’ve recently retired or are ready for a change.

For example, you’ve just kicked off your retirement and you want to move to somewhere you can enjoy the warm weather and have less house to maintain. Your new lifestyle may be better suited for a different home.

Change in Relationship Status

Divorce, separation, or marriage are other common reasons individuals sell to buy different homes.

For example, if you’ve recently separated, it may be difficult to still live under one roof. Selling and downsizing may be better options.

Health Concerns

If a homeowner faces mobility challenges or health issues that require specific living arrangements or modifications, they might sell their current home to find one that works better for them.

For example, you may be looking to sell your home and use the proceeds to help pay for a unit in an assisted-living facility.

With higher mortgage rates, there are some affordability challenges right now – but your needs and your lifestyle matter too. As a recent article from Bankrate says:

“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal decision. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based, before putting your home on the market. . . . Your future plans and goals should be a significant part of the equation . . .”

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to sell your house so you can make a move, let’s connect so you have an expert on your side to help you navigate the process and find a home that can deliver on what you’re looking for.

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